Preferential Presidential Primary Poll, August 2023
Especially early in a primary, many voters are still making a decision about which candidate to support. Voters start grouping candidates into those they like and those they will not support. Seeing how voters would rank each candidate reveals patterns and can provide a glimpse into how the race will develop over time.
Understanding which candidates voters like the least shows which messages are resonating and which are falling flat.
Preferential polling also allows us to simulate where voters move if and when their preferred candidates drop out of the race.
More and more data scientists and organizations are using preferential polling to get a fuller picture of how voters are deciding which candidates to support.
Trump Wins Ranked Choice Presidential Poll: Here is What Republicans Should Know
- Donald Trump leads with 49% of voters’ first-choices, and remains the clear front-runner (with and without ranked choice voting)
In a ranked choice voting tabulation, Trump wins and beats Ron DeSantis head-to-head 56%-44% - Second-choice preferences provide valuable information on voter preferences: DeSantis (47%) and Vivek Ramaswamy (28%) are by far the most common second choices for Trump voters
- If Trump were not in the race, DeSantis and Ramaswamy would benefit. DeSantis would lead with 40% of voters’ first choices, with Ramaswamy earning 21%. In a ranked choice voting tabulation, DeSantis would beat Ramaswamy head-to-head 63%-37%
- The first GOP debate had minimal impact on voters’ preferences
- Republican voters are open to ranked choice voting, with 45% in support and 36% opposed
Additional Analysis
Trump remains the clear front-runner (with and without ranked choice voting)
Respondents were asked to rank the presidential candidates in order of preference. Donald Trump is the first choice of 49% of respondents, a solid lead over second-place finisher Ron DeSantis (19%).
Ranked choice voting provides more information on voter preferences, including which candidate voters prefer if their favorite drops out of the race.
In our ranked choice voting tabulation, Donald Trump wins a majority (50% + 1) in round 9 after several of his competitors are eliminated. The candidates who are still active when Trump wins a majority are DeSantis, Haley, and Pence. When the tabulation is run down to the final two candidates, Trump beats DeSantis 56%-44%.
Ramaswamy was in fourth place among voters’ first-choice preferences, but Mike Pence overtook Ramaswamy in round 8, primarily because Pence was a more popular backup choice for Chris Christie voters. Pence ultimately finishes fourth in the ranked choice voting tabulation.
Second-choice preferences reveal patterns
There is a large amount of crossover voting between Trump and DeSantis. DeSantis is the most common second choice for Trump voters (47%), while Ramaswamy is the second most-common (28%); all others are in single digits.
Trump is the most common second choice for DeSantis voters (33%). Supporters of other candidates tend to prefer DeSantis over Trump.
What if Trump were not in the race?
We used poll respondents’ ranked preferences to simulate what would happen if Trump withdrew from the election. The tabulation below assumes each Trump voter would instead vote for their next highest-ranked candidate.
DeSantis would lead with 40% of first choices, and ranked choice voting would deliver him an even stronger mandate with 63% in the final round, compared to 37% for Ramaswamy. Ramaswamy’s fortune would improve significantly if Trump withdrew because he is a popular second choice of Trump supporters, after only DeSantis.
Haley would come in third, benefitting more than any other candidate when Scott is eliminated. Both are from South Carolina, suggesting voters in the state may be divided in a single-choice race but could consolidate around the strongest candidate from the state in an RCV race.
Trump voters are committed to their choice; other voters are more flexible
Overall, 28% of respondents say they are very committed to their first choice and 40% are mostly committed. 84% of those who are completely committed strongly prefer Trump as a first choice, the mostly committed respondents prefer Trump (50%) and DeSantis (26%), and those who lean or are unsure have a wide range of first-choice preferences.
Among Trump voters, 48% are completely committed and 41% are mostly committed, making Trump the candidate with the voting base that is least likely to change its mind. A significant share of voters who support DeSantis (57%) and Ramaswamy (44%) are mostly committed as well. The other candidates have a higher share of supporters who aren’t certain.
Republican voters are open to ranked choice voting
After being asked to rank the candidates, the poll asked respondents for their opinion about ranked choice voting. When asked if they’re familiar with ranked choice voting, 48% answered yes, compared to 49% who are not familiar.
45% of respondents would support using ranked choice voting in 2024 primary elections, compared to 36% who would not support it.
The first Republican presidential debate had minimal impact on voter preferences
Respondents who watched all or some of the presidential debate had similar preferences to those who did not watch any of the debate.
Trump’s standing remained similar (about 49% of first choices). Haley earned the biggest boost among those who watched the debate (+2.7 percentage points) followed by Ramaswamy (+1.9 points), while Pence dropped by 3.3 points among debate viewers.
Methodology
Respondents were contacted via SMS (text-to-web) (50%) and online panel (50%), on August 24 and 26-28. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.5% in 95 out of 100 cases.